Appalachian Thunderstorms Ramp Up for 70 MPH Damaging Winds — SevereWX

Appalachian Storms Charge Ahead with Severe Wind Potential

Thunderstorms are bubbling up across the rugged terrain of southeastern West Virginia, southern Virginia, western North Carolina, and far northeast Tennessee this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion 1649 flags an 80% chance of issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon, as these storms gain steam.

Diurnal heating has juiced up the atmosphere, yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg despite weaker mid-level lapse rates. Low-level lapse rates around 8.5-9°C/km and minimal CIN are fueling rapid development along higher elevations and a key confluence zone stretching from northern VA into western NC. Expect scattered to numerous storms to spread eastward through late afternoon.

Shear profiles—20-25 knots up north, 15-20 knots south—should help organize updrafts, priming the pump for damaging wind gusts of 55-70 mph. Hail up to 1.25 inches is possible too, though winds steal the show here.

MD 1649 Details:

• Valid: Until 2 PM EDT (181900Z)
• Peak Threats: 55-70 mph winds, 1.25" hail
• Watch Odds: 80%

Trends are being closely watched by SPC forecasters Bunting and Thompson. Storms could pack a punch in this mountainous region, where gusts amplify downhill.

Stay Prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have a severe weather plan ready, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter if storms approach. Check radar and SPC site for watch issuance. #SevereWX #Appalachians

(Map lat/lon polygon highlights the bullseye zone—see SPC for graphics.)