Southern Arizona Monsoon Storms Prime for 55-70 MPH Wind Gusts — SevereWX

Southern Arizona Monsoon Storms Prime for 55-70 MPH Wind Gusts

Storms are firing up along the Gila and White Mountains in southern Arizona, set to deepen and spread southwest into southeast and south-central areas late this afternoon through evening.

A hot, moist air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep lapse rates is fueling the action under the edge of an upper high over Utah and Colorado. Early cumulus towers are already building, and models show coverage ramping up over the next 2-3 hours.

Key ingredient: a belt of strong easterly winds around 4-6 km altitude, per the latest Tucson (KEMX) vertical wind profile. Paired with steep low-level lapse rates, this boosts chances for organized cold pools and damaging downdrafts.

Expect peak wind gusts of 55-70 mph, with hail up to 1.25 inches possible. SPC sees an 80% shot at a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon.

Impacts: Power outages, tree damage, and rough outdoor conditions in southeast/south-central Arizona (including Tucson metro edges). Storms valid through around 11 PM CDT (5 PM-11 PM MST).

Track updates via radar on SevereWX.net or SPC site.

Preparedness: Secure outdoor items, avoid flooded roads, and have a severe weather plan ready. Monitor local NWS alerts for Tucson (TWC), Phoenix (PSR), and Flagstaff (FGZ).