Arizona Mogollon Rim Storms Spread 80 MPH Desert Gusts — SevereWX

Deepening thunderstorms along Arizona's Mogollon Rim and southeast regions are fueling a growing severe weather setup this afternoon.

As of late afternoon CDT (early evening local), visible satellite shows cumulus fields building rapidly, supported by steep midlevel lapse rates and rich midlevel moisture. MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg is driving destabilization, with new storms expected to ignite over higher terrain soon.

Midlevel easterly flow at 20-30 knots will nudge these storms off the mountains toward lower desert elevations through evening. Organized clusters could pack isolated wind gusts to 80 mph—the SPC's most probable peak—prompting close monitoring for a severe thunderstorm watch within 1-2 hours (60% probability).

The threat centers on parts of southern and central Arizona, from roughly the Phoenix area south to Tucson and east. Peak gusts of 65-80 mph may damage power lines, topple trees, and create hazardous driving conditions in outflow-dominated storms.

Trends remain fluid—stay tuned to local NWS updates from TWC, FGZ, PSR, and VEF offices.

Preparedness: Secure loose outdoor objects, avoid travel under storms, and monitor radar closely. Have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot indoors.