Arizona Convection Off Terrain Primed for 80 MPH Desert Gusts — SevereWX

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1606 highlights a growing severe wind risk in southern and central Arizona this afternoon into evening.

As of 0249 PM CDT on July 12, 2026, visible satellite shows deepening cumulus over southeast Arizona, with thunderstorms already firing along the Mogollon Rim. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rich midlevel moisture are boosting MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, setting the stage for further destabilization.

Expect additional thunderstorm development over higher terrain, then midlevel easterly winds (20-30 knots) will steer these storms toward the lower deserts. Organized clusters could pack isolated gusts to 80 mph, with the most probable peaks at 65-80 mph.

Trends are under close watch, with a severe thunderstorm watch possible within 1-2 hours (60% probability). The valid period runs until 2145Z.

Check the SPC MD graphic for the detailed lat/lon polygon covering key areas.

Preparedness: Secure outdoor items, avoid desert travel if storms approach, and monitor NWS Phoenix (FGZ) and Tucson (TWC) for updates. High winds can down power lines and create hazardous driving—stay weather-aware.