Boundary Sparks 55-70 MPH Gusts Over Northern Arkansas Into Tennessee — SevereWX

Boundary Sparks 55-70 MPH Gusts Over Northern Arkansas Into Tennessee

A mesoscale discussion from the Storm Prediction Center highlights scattered thunderstorms developing along a key boundary near the Missouri/Arkansas line, extending into western Kentucky. This setup promises corridors of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph this afternoon into evening across northern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi.

What's driving the threat?

• Strong heating is building MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg ahead of the boundary, with steep low-level lapse rates.
• Midlevel westerlies at 30-40 kt and 850 mb winds at 20-25 kt favor storm clusters and outflow propagation.
• Storms expected after 2 PM CDT (19Z), spreading east-southeast.

The SPC pegs a 60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch. Peak hazards include 55-70 mph gusts and isolated marginal hail to 1.25 inches. While storms remain scattered, the strongest cells could pack a punch during peak heating.

This fits under today's Slight Risk for the Mid-South, with activity tied to a slow-moving shortwave trough over Missouri.

Timing: Development after 2 PM CDT, threats through 8 PM CDT.

Stay prepared: Keep an eye on radar, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Download the SevereWX.net app for real-time updates.