Northern Dakotas Face Isolated Large Hail, 80 MPH Wind Risk Tonight — SevereWX

Isolated thunderstorms are intensifying across northern South Dakota and adjacent parts of North Dakota, posing risks of severe hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion 1453, highlighting a corridor of rich low-level moisture (dewpoints 60s F) and high instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) from central SD into central/western ND. Storms recently strengthened in northwestern South Dakota, within the eastern fringe of Watch 441, and are forecast to track northeastward into north-central SD.

Short-term models suggest these storms will hold together, potentially producing isolated large hail (1.50-2.50 inches) and severe wind gusts (65-80 mph) near the instability axis. Additional development is possible in southern and western North Dakota, heightening the severe potential.

SPC notes a 40% probability of watch issuance, which could involve extending current coverage or issuing a new watch for parts of northern SD. Peak threats include winds up to 80 mph and possible tornadoes to 90 mph intensity, though the primary concerns are hail and gusts.

Affected areas span northern SD into southern/western ND—check the SPC MD graphic for exact boundaries. Local offices (ABR, BIS, UNR) are monitoring.

Stay weather-aware this evening. Keep an eye on radar, have multiple alert sources, and prepare a severe weather plan: secure outdoors, seek shelter in interior rooms away from windows, and monitor for watches/warnings. Safety first as these storms evolve.