Dakotas Thunderstorms Eye 2.5-Inch Hail, 80 MPH Winds Tonight — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are intensifying across parts of the Dakotas, setting the stage for isolated severe weather tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights a corridor of rich low-level moisture from central South Dakota into central and western North Dakota, fueling MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Storms recently ramped up in northwestern South Dakota, just east of an existing watch (WW 441), and are forecast to push northeast into north-central South Dakota over the next few hours.

Additional development is possible in southern and western North Dakota. Storms near the peak instability axis pose the greatest risk, potentially producing severe wind gusts up to 80 mph, isolated large hail of 1.50-2.50 inches, and peak tornado winds to 90 mph.

A watch extension across northern South Dakota or a new watch may be needed soon, with SPC pegging the probability at 40%. Activity should peak through around 7 PM CDT into the overnight hours.

Stay prepared: Monitor local warnings, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready if you're in northern SD or southern/western ND.