Dakotas Supercells Eye 2-Inch Hail, Damaging Wind Gusts — SevereWX

Dakotas Supercells Eye 2-Inch Hail, Damaging Wind Gusts

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1561 highlights a growing severe risk from isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of western South Dakota into central and northeastern North Dakota.

A convectively charged shortwave trough over southern Manitoba is fueling storms southeastward, while agitated cumulus fields bubble up over northwestern South Dakota. Weak surface convergence along a pre-frontal trough aids development, setting the stage for supercellular storms amid 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kt effective shear.

The primary threats include very large hail—potentially reaching 2 inches or more in isolated spots—and damaging wind gusts to 55-70 mph. Peak tornado potential sits at EF2 intensity (90 mph), though coverage remains uncertain.

SPC notes a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if threats organize, especially across central/eastern North Dakota where shear and storm coverage may peak.

This setup diverges from broader High Plains activity, focusing on Dakotas-specific ascent and buoyancy for evening hazards.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS alerts, have a severe weather plan, and use apps like RadarLive or SPC's site for real-time updates. Seek shelter if storms approach your area.