Supercells Charging East ND into NW Minnesota with Giant Hail, Strong Tornadoes Tonight — SevereWX

Supercells Poised to Intensify in East ND, NW Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion 1388, highlighting a growing severe threat from developing supercells across parts of east central North Dakota into northwest through central Minnesota. These storms could pack very large hail up to 3.5 inches, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a risk for a couple strong tornadoes (120-145 mph winds) through 9-11 PM CDT tonight.

Rich moisture with mid-70s dew points is fueling extreme instability under steep lapse rates from warm elevated air. While subsidence delayed initiation earlier, deepening convection is now underway near a retreating outflow/warm front northeast of Alexandria, MN. A beefy southerly low-level jet is curving hodographs, boosting supercell and tornado potential along this boundary.

An 80% chance of a tornado watch exists within the next few hours. Mid-level cooling and a pivoting shortwave trough will further enhance the setup by 02-04Z.

Peak Threats:

This fits into the broader Plains severe pattern, but eyes stay on these discrete storms for the most intense action. Check radar closely if in the path.

Stay Prepared: Have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot, keep devices charged, and monitor local NWS updates or apps like SevereWX.net for real-time intel.