Giant Hail, Damaging Gusts Threaten Northeast SD, Central MN This Evening — SevereWX

Severe thunderstorms are lining up for northeast South Dakota and west-central to central Minnesota this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion highlights increasing odds for strong to severe storms firing as early as 6-8 PM CDT near the ND-SD-MN border and spreading into the warned areas. With upper-80s temps, 70s dewpoints, and over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, the atmosphere is primed for explosive development ahead of an approaching front.

Model guidance points to initial storms bubbling up near the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466, potentially expanding into northeast SD and west-central MN. Effective shear around 25 knots could organize these into hail and wind producers.

Key threats include:

• Hail: Most probable 1.50-2.50 inches
• Wind gusts: 65-80 mph

A severe thunderstorm watch issuance sits at 60% probability, with forecasters watching storm coverage and intensity closely. Storms may remain isolated to scattered but pack a punch through late evening.

This setup builds on lingering instability across the Northern Plains, where rich precipitable water over 1.8 inches boosts heavy rain chances too.

Stay prepared: Review your severe weather plan, secure outdoor items, and keep an eye on radar via local NWS offices (FSD, ABR, MPX, FGF). Have multiple alert sources ready and know your safe spot indoors.

Monitor SPC for updates.