High CAPE Fuels Severe Hail, Wind Risk Over Northeast SD, Central MN — SevereWX

Northern Plains Evening Severe Threat Intensifies

A mesoscale discussion from the Storm Prediction Center flags growing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota and west-central into central Minnesota. Development could kick off as early as 6-8 PM CDT near the ND/SD/MN border, with additional storms possible farther southeast.

Surface conditions are primed: upper 80s temperatures, 70s dewpoints yielding 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs over 1.8 inches. Southerly low-level flow veers westerly aloft, providing 25 kt effective shear to organize storms. The RAP model hints at initiation tied to the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466.

Stronger cells could deliver isolated to scattered large hail (1.50-2.50 inches) and severe gusts (65-80 mph) through late evening. Watch issuance odds sit at 60%, as forecasters monitor storm coverage and upscale growth.

Uncertainties linger on exact evolution, but mesoscale factors favor at least some severe reports. Check SPC's MD graphic for the latest.

Stay Prepared: Monitor radar closely this evening, secure outdoor items, and have multiple alert sources ready. Know your safe room for hail and wind threats.