High Plains Thunderstorms Eye Severe Gusts, Upscale Growth — SevereWX

Scattered thunderstorms are bubbling up over the high terrain from central Colorado into southeastern Wyoming this afternoon, setting the stage for a severe weather episode across portions of the central High Plains.

A weak mid-level impulse and heating, combined with an easterly upslope flow, are fueling this development. Though moisture is limited near the Colorado foothills—with dewpoints in the 40s—storms will tap into richer air moving eastward, aiding intensification.

The main culprit? Steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 9°C/km and deep, well-mixed boundary layers with high LCLs (2-3+ km). This setup favors strong downdrafts, evaporative cooling, and momentum transport, priming efficient severe wind gusts up to 65-80 mph. A couple of gusts could push even higher.

Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches) is also in play, particularly with discrete storms, thanks to steep mid-level lapse rates and improving shear farther north. Expect upscale growth into linear clusters as cold pools merge, ramping up the wind threat into evening.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1542 pegs the chance of one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches at 80% within the next 1-2 hours, covering areas from the Nebraska Panhandle and western Kansas to eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming.

Peak threats: 65-80 mph winds, 1.00-1.75-inch hail.

Stay vigilant—keep a weather app handy, secure outdoor items, and have a plan if warnings hit your area.