Dodge City Shear Powers Kansas Supercells for Large Hail, Severe Gusts — SevereWX

Dodge City Shear Powers Kansas Supercells for Large Hail, Severe Gusts

Storms are gearing up across west-central and north-central Kansas this evening, where supercells could pack a punch with isolated large hail up to 2.5 inches and wind gusts to 80 mph.

A 1007 mb surface low sits over the western Oklahoma Panhandle, with a key axis of low-level convergence stretching northeast into Kansas. Juicy dewpoints in the mid-60s to 70s F are fueling extreme instability, with RAP model MLCAPE values soaring to 3000-4500 J/kg. A mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity maximum are diving eastward across the central High Plains, sparking thunderstorm development along this volatile setup.

The Dodge City VWP radar shows 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, including directional shear in the 1-4 km layer—prime ingredients for supercell structures. These storms will likely produce isolated large hail from robust updrafts, while severe downdrafts or any organizing short-line segments could whip up damaging 65-80 mph gusts.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1480 flags a 60% chance of a watch, covering areas from roughly Goodland to Salina and west to Hays. Storms should fire soon after 6 PM CDT and persist into the late evening.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Seek shelter if storms approach your area.