Supercells Slam Kansas, Charge Toward Oklahoma-Missouri Severe Threats — SevereWX

Supercells Slam Kansas, Charge Toward Oklahoma-Missouri Severe Threats

Urgent severe weather escalates across Kansas this evening, with storms poised to spread damaging hail, ferocious winds and tornadoes into northeast Oklahoma and southern Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued two mesoscale discussions (MDs) signaling 80% odds of watches soon, highlighting a connected threat from ongoing supercells in southwestern and northern Kansas to fresh development in the southeast part of the state.

In southwestern and northern Kansas, supercells with a track record of severe hail and gusts are marching southeast along a subtle wind shift zone. High instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and robust shear (50-60 knots) fuel 1.5-2.5 inch hail, 65-80 mph winds, and even tornadoes up to 85-110 mph. These storms may line out, shifting focus to 75+ mph gusts as they push downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364.

Meanwhile, southeast Kansas hosts an ongoing severe thunderstorm, with more bubbling up along a stalled boundary stretching from northern Oklahoma northeast to St. Louis. Expect supercells here too, backed by 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 knot shear. Northeast Oklahoma and much of southern Missouri face the highest odds for new storms this afternoon and evening, packing severe hail, damaging winds (ramping up with merging outflows), and low-level tornado potential near the boundary.

What does a Mesoscale Discussion mean? SPC uses MDs to flag fast-evolving, localized severe risks too small for broader outlooks but big enough for watches. Think of it as an early radar ping: trouble's brewing, and formal watches are likely within 1-2 hours to outline exact zones and hazards.

Stay ahead—check radar frequently, secure outdoors, have a shelter plan for hail/winds/tornadoes, and monitor NWS alerts. Severe weather moves fast; prep now keeps you safe. Updates at SevereWX.net.

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