Supercells Charge Up in KS-OK-MO with Strong Tornado Threat — SevereWX

Supercells Charge Up in KS-OK-MO with Strong Tornado Threat

Afternoon thunderstorms are gaining steam across south-central and southeast Kansas, north-central and northeast Oklahoma, and southwest Missouri, packing potential for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion 1309 highlights a bowing line west of Wichita and cellular storms spilling into north-central Oklahoma. These are expected to root into a very moist boundary layer amid breaks in cirrus clouds, fueling MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg. Favorable winds—with 40-45 kt mid-level flow and a 30 kt low-level jet—yield shear up to 54 kt and SRH over 200 m²/s², priming storms for supercell modes.

Peak threats:

Storms along the synoptic front or outflow boundaries could explode, with the greatest tornado risk in discrete supercells. SPC eyes convective trends for a 60% chance of issuing a tornado watch by late afternoon (valid until around 4 PM CDT).

This setup builds on recent Plains activity, but today's focus shifts east with destabilization overriding earlier stable layers. Check SPC's MD graphic for the latest lat/lon box.

Stay prepared: Have a severe weather plan, monitor local NWS updates via radar apps, and know your safe spot. Heed any watches or warnings—act fast if tornado sirens sound.