Western Kansas Supercells Charge Panhandles with Tennis Ball Hail, 80 MPH Winds — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are firing up along a southward-moving cold front this afternoon across western Kansas and into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Initial storms in the far western Panhandles have shown lightning amid deeply mixed profiles, with more activity expected to blossom ahead of the boundary.

Rich instability fuels the setup, as steep low- to mid-level lapse rates of 7-8°C/km combine with surface temps in the upper 80s to 90s and dewpoints in the mid-60s to 70s. This yields MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg, priming early supercells for 1.50-2.50 inch hail and damaging winds. Storms should upscale quickly into a line, shifting the primary hazard to 65-80 mph gusts.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1126 highlights an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover the evolving threat through late evening (valid until 02/245Z). Peak tornado potential sits at 90 mph, but hail and wind dominate forecasts.

Impacts could hit portions of southwest Kansas, the OK Panhandle, and TX Panhandle—stay tuned for watch updates from WFOs ICT, OUN, DDC, and AMA.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check SPC.noaa.gov for graphics and updates.