Kansas Instability Axis Fuels Supercells for 2.5-Inch Hail, 80 MPH Winds — SevereWX

Kansas supercells are gearing up along a sharp instability axis this evening, primed for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion (1480) flags west-central and north-central Kansas for severe potential, with a 60% chance of a watch issuance through around 7:30 PM CDT. A 1007 mb low near the western Oklahoma Panhandle anchors an axis of low-level convergence stretching northeast into Kansas, where surface dewpoints in the mid-60s to mid-70s F are fueling explosive instability. RAP model soundings show MLCAPE surging to 3000-4500 J/kg.

A mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity max nosing east across the central High Plains will spark thunderstorm development along this axis early evening. Dodge City VWP data reveals 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with directional shear in the 1-4 km layer favoring supercell structures. These storms could produce isolated hail up to 2.5 inches (tennis ball size) and severe gusts to 80 mph. Intense short-line segments may also pack damaging winds.

Peak threats: 65-80 mph winds and 1.50-2.5 inch hail. Affected WFOs include TOP, ICT, GID, DDC, and GLD.

Stay weather-aware in west-central and north-central Kansas—have a severe weather plan ready, seek shelter indoors away from windows if storms approach, and monitor local NWS updates or radar via the SevereWX.net app for real-time intel.