Kansas Supercells Charge for Large Hail, 80 MPH Winds — SevereWX

Supercells are poised to ignite across west-central and north-central Kansas this evening, packing isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A low-pressure system over the western Oklahoma Panhandle is driving an axis of low-level convergence into Kansas, where rich moisture is fueling explosive instability. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s to mid-70s°F are supporting MLCAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg per RAP model data.

A mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity maximum are advancing eastward across the central High Plains, sparking thunderstorm development along this instability gradient. Dodge City VWP data reveals 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, including directional shear in the 1-4 km layer—ideal for supercell structures.

These storms could yield hail of 1.50-2.50 inches and wind gusts of 65-80 mph. Intense short-line segments may also produce severe downdrafts.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1480 pegs watch issuance odds at 60%. Monitor radar closely as storms evolve.

Stay prepared: Have a severe weather plan, seek shelter indoors away from windows if storms approach, and keep devices charged for NOAA Weather Radio alerts.