KS-OK Supercells Fire for 2.5-Inch Hail Bombs, 80 MPH Gusts on July 4th — SevereWX

Storms are bubbling up fast along a key outflow boundary and heat axis in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, per SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1496.

Expect supercell development between 5-7 PM CDT, packing 1.5-2.5 inch hail (golf ball to tennis ball size), 65-80 mph wind gusts, and a low-but-not-zero tornado risk up to 90 mph (EF2 intensity). The setup features steamy low 70s dewpoints fueling massive surface-based CAPE under steep lapse rates, with 40 kt shear curving low-level winds for rotating updrafts.

Initially discrete supercells could drop the biggest hail and strongest gusts, but expect them to merge into clusters southward, spreading severe hits into evening hours. A watch is nearly certain (95% odds) through 11 PM CDT.

This July 4th action adds urgency—picnics and fireworks could get disrupted by baseball-sized ice and downbursts.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, seek sturdy shelter if storms approach, secure outdoor items, and have a weather app handy for alerts. Check SPC's site for updates.