KS-OK Supercells Surge on Heat Axis for 2.5-Inch Hail, 80 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

Storms are brewing for a dramatic evening across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma as diurnal heating ignites thunderstorms along a robust heat axis and remnant outflow boundary.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion (1496) highlights a 95% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch issuance soon. Expect initial supercell development between 5-7 PM CDT, fueled by surface-based CAPE from lower 70s dewpoints under steep midlevel lapse rates. Effective shear near 40 knots supports semi-discrete cells with low-level hodograph curvature.

Primary threats include very large hail (1.50-2.50 inches) and severe wind gusts (65-80 mph). These supercells could pulse isolated tornadoes up to EF2 intensity (90 mph) near boundaries, though winds and hail lead the risks. As coverage increases, storms may merge into clusters, spreading damaging gusts southward.

This setup echoes recent Plains volatility but zeroes in on KS-OK's primed environment, per the DDC sounding and visible satellite trends showing deepening cumulus.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready—especially with July 4th festivities underway. Check SPC updates at spc.noaa.gov.