KS-OK Supercells Fire on Outflow Boundary for Baseball Hail, 80 MPH Winds — SevereWX

Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma are primed for severe supercells this July 4th evening.

The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion (1496) eyes thunderstorm development between 5-7 PM CDT along a remnant outflow boundary from south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. An agitated cumulus field is already bubbling at the nose of a potent heat axis in northwest Oklahoma, fueled by relentless diurnal heating.

Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s combine with steep midlevel lapse rates for explosive instability. Add around 40 knots of effective shear and some low-level hodograph curvature, and you've got a recipe for initial semi-discrete supercells. These storms could pack very large hail (1.50-2.50 inches) and severe wind gusts (65-80 mph). A tornado isn't off the table with any boundary interactions, potentially reaching 90 mph peak intensity.

As coverage grows, expect upscale growth into clusters with scattered damaging winds pushing south. SPC pegs watch issuance odds at 95% within the next few hours, valid until around 6 PM CDT.

This setup echoes recent Plains volatility but zeroes in on KS-OK with high-end hail and wind potential. Stay tuned for watch updates from WFOs ICT, OUN, TSA, and DDC.

Preparedness Tip: Secure outdoor items, identify a sturdy shelter, and monitor radar closely if in the area—have helmets ready for potential large hail. Check SPC.noaa.gov for graphics and updates.