Watch Possible NE South Dakota Amid Slight Risk — July 7, 2026 — SevereWX

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across South Dakota today, the highest threat level on the Day 1 outlook. Storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail are possible, especially as daytime heating strengthens instability. Overnight activity prompted a now-expired severe thunderstorm watch, and a fresh mesoscale discussion this morning raises the odds of another watch soon in northeast South Dakota and nearby areas.

No watches or warnings are active at this time, but conditions are being closely monitored as clusters of thunderstorms develop.

Timeline

11:34 PM EDT — Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468 Issued

The Storm Prediction Center issued Mesoscale Discussion 1530 overnight, leading to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468 for northeast South Dakota and central Minnesota. The watch highlighted the potential for strong storms and was valid until 1:00 AM EDT. It has since expired with no reports of significant damage.

10:29 AM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion: 40% Chance of Severe Watch

SPC released Mesoscale Discussion 1531, noting severe potential across northeast South Dakota, far southeast North Dakota, and west-central Minnesota. The outlook calls for a 40% probability of issuing a new severe thunderstorm watch over the next few hours. Early morning storms are showing signs of organization amid favorable conditions.

What's Next

South Dakota's Slight risk remains the focus for the afternoon and evening, with northeast areas most at risk for organized storms in the next couple of hours. A new watch could come soon if trends continue; stay tuned for updates as radar shows initial development.

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