Slight Risk Severe Storms AZ/SC — July 12, 2026 — SevereWX

LIVE Severe Weather Update: Slight Risk Across Arizona, South Carolina — July 12, 2026

A Slight risk level highlights the main severe weather potential today across Arizona and South Carolina, where thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado. These areas align with the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, focusing on instability and wind shear favorable for stronger storms this afternoon and evening. No watches or warnings are active right now, but scattered thunderstorms continue to develop amid daytime heating.

Overnight activity prompted several mesoscale discussions in other regions, including the Southwest and Northeast Oklahoma, now largely lapsed. This morning brings a fresh look at severe potential farther north. Conditions evolve quickly—refresh for updates as new discussions or watches emerge in the next few hours.

Timeline

8:22 PM EDT — SPC mesoscale discussion on southern Arizona severe storms

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion for southern Arizona concerning Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484. Ongoing thunderstorms posed a severe weather threat through about 10:15 PM EDT. Damaging winds and large hail were the primary concerns in the affected area.

9:58 PM EDT — SPC mesoscale discussion for northeast Oklahoma severe storms

Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center released a mesoscale discussion addressing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 over northeast Oklahoma. The discussion covered the severe threat from storms valid until roughly 11:30 PM EDT. Strong wind gusts remained possible with the activity.

10:41 PM EDT — New SPC mesoscale discussion for southern Arizona

Another mesoscale discussion from the SPC focused on southern Arizona and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484. This update highlighted the continuing severe weather threat valid from about 8:41 PM EDT through 12:45 AM EDT. Storms capable of hail and gusty winds persisted into the overnight hours.

8:36 AM EDT — SPC eyes severe potential in Upper Michigan Peninsula, watch possible

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion for portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, signaling severe thunderstorm potential with a 40% chance of a watch issuance. This early morning update is valid through around 10:30 AM EDT. Scattered storms may intensify, bringing risks of damaging winds and hail if they organize.

What's Next

Daytime heating will fuel thunderstorm development within the Slight risk areas of Arizona and South Carolina over the next several hours, potentially yielding damaging winds and hail through the evening. Monitor for possible watch issuance in northern Michigan as instability builds. No widespread tornado threat is expected, but stay alert for local warnings as storms pulse up.

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