Enhanced Risk for DE/MD/NJ/PA — July 18, 2026 — SevereWX

Enhanced Risk for DE/MD/NJ/PA — July 18, 2026

An Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms covers Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania today, where storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Slight risk extends into Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, and New York. Conditions remain favorable for scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening as a potent shortwave trough and rich low-level moisture interact across the Northeast and Great Lakes.

Overnight into early July 18, the Storm Prediction Center focuses on pockets of severe potential farther north in the Great Lakes, issuing mesoscale discussions for parts of Michigan and Wisconsin. No watches or warnings are active at this time, but forecasters continue monitoring for any developments.

Timeline

8:02 PM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Upper Michigan, N. Wisconsin, Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion highlighting severe thunderstorm potential across parts of Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, and far east-central Minnesota. Storms in these areas could bring damaging winds and hail, but the probability of a watch remains low at 20 percent. This setup persists through the overnight hours.

9:51 PM EDT — Mesoscale Discussion for Northern Lower Michigan

SPC followed up with another mesoscale discussion for northern Lower Michigan, noting continued severe potential from ongoing or developing storms. Watch issuance is unlikely here as well, with just a 20 percent chance. The discussion covers the next few hours into early Saturday morning.

What's Next

No watches or warnings are in effect now, but attention turns to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the day on July 18. Enhanced risk areas could see the main severe storm development by afternoon, with damaging winds the primary threat alongside hail and a lower tornado risk. Updates will follow as new discussions or watches emerge.

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