Update: Intensifying Appalachians Storms Set Stage for 55-70 MPH Downbursts — SevereWX
Thunderstorms are picking up steam across parts of southeastern Kentucky, southwestern Virginia, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina, raising the risk for localized damaging downbursts.
The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion highlights storms developing and intensifying south of a remnant mid-level cyclone (MCV) drifting east-southeastward. While ambient winds are modest at 20-25 knots, stronger 30-40 knot flow in the 700-500 mb layer to the south is aiding storm organization.
Seasonably moist air near 90°F surface temperatures is fueling boundary-layer destabilization ahead of a weak front trailing southwest from the MCV. This setup, combined with steep lapse rates in temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature through the lower and mid-troposphere, will likely drive further storm growth—especially into the western Appalachian slopes.
SPC forecasters expect the severe wind potential to ramp up through 5-6 PM EDT (20-21Z), with a 60% chance of a weather watch. Most probable peak gusts: 55-70 mph.
Affected Areas: Southeastern KY, southwestern VA, eastern TN, western NC. Check the SPC MD graphic for precise lat/lon blocks.
Local NWS offices (JKL, RLX, MRX, OHX, RNK, GSP) are notified. Trends remain under close watch for watch issuance.
Stay prepared: Secure loose outdoor items, charge devices, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio or apps for severe thunderstorm warnings. Have a plan for sudden wind damage and power outages.
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