Mid-South Storms Intensify with Golf Ball Hail, 70 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

Storms are ramping up across portions of northern Arkansas and the Mid-South this evening, delivering large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the outside chance of a brief tornado.

Latest data from the Storm Prediction Center shows convective coverage increasing along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from southwestern Missouri into northern Arkansas and toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Storms are mixing multicell clusters with occasional supercell structures, and MRMS estimates have clocked hail up to 1.5 inches, following earlier 1-inch reports in the area.

This activity is closing in on a pocket of peak buoyancy near the Mississippi River, setting the stage for heightened severe potential over the next couple of hours. Primary threats include golf ball-sized hail (1-1.75 inches) and wind gusts of 55-70 mph. A few cells have shown fleeting low-level rotation, but weak shear ahead of the boundary keeps tornado odds low—tied mainly to favorable boundary interactions, with peak intensity up to 90 mph possible.

Uncertainty lingers on storm longevity as stronger shear sits farther north, but SPC is eyeing a 40% chance of a watch. Activity should spread into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi soon.

Check the SPC Mesoscale Discussion graphic for the latest boundaries.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready—especially if you're in northern AR, western TN, or northern MS.