North-Central Minnesota Supercells Primed for 2.5-Inch Hail, 70 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

North-Central Minnesota Supercells Primed for 2.5-Inch Hail, 70 MPH Gusts

Storms are firing up this afternoon along a cold front in north-central Minnesota and nearby areas, setting the stage for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing golf ball to tennis ball-sized hail (1.5-2.5 inches) and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

A shortwave impulse boosting a broader upper-level cyclone is fueling vertical growth along the front near the western Minnesota border. With temperatures nearing 80°F and dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, CAPE exceeds 1500 J/kg and negligible inhibition, priming the pump for robust thunderstorm development as the front nudges eastward into northern Minnesota through late afternoon.

Strong upper-level winds provide ample shear for supercell structures, though modest low-level shear keeps the tornado risk low. The primary concerns remain large hail from potent updrafts and damaging straight-line winds from strong downdrafts in the most intense storms.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1065 highlights an 80% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch, valid until around 5:30 PM CDT. Peak threats include hail to 2.5 inches, winds of 55-70 mph, and isolated tornadoes up to 90 mph intensity.

Residents from central-north Minnesota toward the Dakotas border should monitor radar closely as storms mature over the next few hours.

Stay prepared: Have a severe weather plan, seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor if warnings are issued, and keep NOAA Weather Radio or apps handy for updates.