Supercells Target Central Minnesota, West-Central Wisconsin with Large Hail — SevereWX

Supercells Poised to Erupt in Central Minnesota, West-Central Wisconsin

Storms advancing southeast from the Red River Valley are set to intensify over central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin this afternoon, packing large hail up to 1.75 inches (golf ball size) and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

Daytime heating is boosting instability, with MLCAPE climbing to 1000-1200 J/kg despite modest dewpoints in the 50s-60s. Strong mid- and upper-level winds, shown in forecast soundings and KMPX profiler data, favor splitting supercells. Models hint at possible mergers into bowing segments later, ramping up the wind threat.

Tornado odds stay low due to veering low-level winds limiting shear, but hail and gusts pose the main risks. SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1200 flags a 60% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 5 PM CDT.

Affected areas include zones near the Twin Cities, Duluth, and Eau Claire, per the MD's lat/lon box. Keep an eye on convective trends—storms could spark in place too.

Peak threats: 1.00-1.75 inch hail, 55-70 mph winds.

Stay alert if you're in the path. Have a severe weather plan: monitor radar, secure outdoors, and know your safe spot. Check SPC.noaa.gov for updates.