Evening Thunderstorms Prime for 2.5-Inch Hail, 80 MPH Blasts in MN/SD — SevereWX

Evening storms are ramping up across the Northern Plains.

The Storm Prediction Center has flagged a mesoscale discussion for northeast South Dakota stretching into west-central and central Minnesota. Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to fire as early as 6-8 PM CDT through late evening, fueled by an approaching front, upper 80s temperatures, muggy lower 70s dewpoints, and 4000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Storms could produce isolated to scattered large hail (1.50-2.50 inches) and severe gusts (65-80 mph). Model guidance points to initial development near the ND-SD-MN border, within the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466, with more storms possible farther southeast into northeast SD and west-central MN.

Shear around 25 knots supports storm organization, but coverage and exact evolution remain uncertain—prompting a 60% chance of a new severe thunderstorm watch.

This builds on earlier Plains activity, as a thin cirrus shield clears ahead of the front. Keep an eye on radar for rapid intensification.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have multiple alert sources, secure outdoor items, and know your safe spot if storms approach. Safety first as severe weather unfolds.