Supercells Spark in Eastern Montana, Western North Dakota with Large Hail, Severe Gusts — SevereWX

Storms are igniting across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota this evening, fueled by a potent mid-level jet streak and rich low-level moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s east of a nearby front are sparking 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, setting the stage for supercellular development.

Convection has already begun in Montana under the jet's lift, with coverage expected to expand through the evening. East of the front, a deep well-mixed boundary layer and strong upper-level winds favor severe gusts up to 80 mph, while large hail to 2.5 inches looms large. West of the front, discrete supercells could persist longer, heightening the hail risk despite some inhibition.

Storms may cluster and upscale east of the front due to strong outflows and focused lift, potentially leading to damaging wind swaths. Peak threats include:

• Hail: 1.50-2.50 inches
• Wind gusts: 65-80 mph
• Tornado: Up to 90 mph (EF2 potential)

SPC rates watch issuance at 95% within the next couple hours. This setup revives Plains severe risks after recent eastern outbreaks.

Stay prepared: Monitor local warnings, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check radar updates on SevereWX.net.