Supercells with Very Large Hail, Tornado Risk Charging NW Nebraska into SW South Dakota Tonight — SevereWX

Supercells with Very Large Hail, Tornado Risk Charging NW Nebraska into SW South Dakota Tonight

Storms are gearing up for a potent evening push across parts of northwestern Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota, per SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1370. Expect increasing thunderstorm development by late evening—potentially as early as now—with supercells leading the charge.

A digging shortwave trough over the West is kicking off ascent ahead of a low-level jet nosing into the region. Shear is ramping up (50-60+ kt at 850 mb), pairing with juicy instability and warm advection near 700 mb. That setup screams supercells, at least initially.

Key Threats:

• Hail: 2.00-3.50 inches (golf ball to lime-sized)—very large and damaging.
• Tornadoes: Up to 85-110 mph (EF1-EF2 intensity).
• Winds: 55-70 mph gusts.

Watch issuance odds sit at 60% within the next few hours (valid until around 10 PM CDT). Isolated activity is already bubbling northwest of Mullen, NE, near the Cheyenne Ridge and Black Hills.

This fits into broader High Plains action but zeroes in on this corridor for the evening highlight. Check SPC's graphic for the lat/lon box.

Stay Prepared: Monitor radar closely, have a severe weather plan, and know your safe spot. Power outages and hail damage could hit quick—secure outdoors and stay alert via local NWS updates.