Supercells Eye Baseball Hail, 80 MPH Gusts in Southeast Nebraska, Southwest Iowa — SevereWX

Supercells Primed for Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds in Mid-MO Valley

Storms are gearing up for a severe punch across portions of southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and far northeast Kansas this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center highlights increasing destabilization near modifying outflow from earlier convection, with a swath of mid-level cumulus signaling steep lapse rates and nearly 4000 J/kg MUCAPE.

Once capping erodes—expected around 5-6 PM CDT (22-23z)—isolated to scattered thunderstorms could fire quickly. Initial supercells look primed for very large hail up to 2.5 inches (baseball size) and damaging wind gusts to 80 mph. Evening upscale growth might boost wind threats through storm clustering.

A severe thunderstorm watch is likely within the next 1-2 hours (80% probability), covering this key area. Most probable peaks: EF2-level tornadoes (90 mph), 65-80 mph gusts, and 1.5-2.5 inch hail.

Timing remains a touch uncertain, but ascent is strengthening atop weakening inhibition. Keep eyes on radar—Omaha and Des Moines metros could see action late afternoon into evening.

Stay prepared: Have a severe weather plan, monitor local alerts via NOAA Weather Radio or apps, and seek shelter if storms intensify. Check SPC for updates.