Giant Hail, Severe Winds Charge Eastern from Colorado Storms into Nebraska-Kansas — SevereWX
Storms firing along the Colorado-Nebraska border are ramping up fast, pushing severe threats eastward into portions of western Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion #1301 highlights increasing storm coverage and intensity, fueled by strong warm air advection over a key surface boundary. With MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and 50+ knots of effective shear, expect robust updrafts producing very large hail (2-3.5 inches) and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph. Storms hugging the boundary could spin up a tornado (most probable 85-110 mph).
High-res models like the HRRR and WoFS point to storm clustering and upscale growth later tonight, amplifying the wind threat. This expansion comes east of existing Tornado Watch 389, with a 95% chance of a new watch issuance soon.
Peak threats:
- Hail: 2.00-3.50 inches
- Wind: 65-80 mph
- Tornado: EF2 intensity possible
Impacts could hit hardest through 1 AM CDT Thursday. Check SPC's graphic for the exact polygon spanning the NE/KS border.
Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have a severe weather plan, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter if storms approach. Safety first as conditions evolve rapidly.