Nebraska Supercells Sparked by Shortwave Trough, Loaded for Large Hail and 80 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are firing up along a corridor of moderate instability stretching from northwest Nebraska into southwest South Dakota, driven by a mid-level shortwave trough visible on satellite imagery. This setup, combined with large-scale ascent, points to increasing storm coverage over the next few hours.

Radar shows initial development supporting supercells, aided by 40 knots of 0-6 km shear from the Rapid City profiler and steep low- to mid-level lapse rates. These ingredients favor isolated large hail—1.50-2.50 inches (golf ball to tennis ball size)—and severe wind gusts up to 80 mph. Expect supercells capable of both hazards, plus damaging downdrafts from any short intense line segments that form.

Meanwhile, ongoing storms in far southeast Wyoming are holding together, tracking eastward into western Nebraska. The stronger cells could deliver similar severe impacts as they push across the region.

A tornado risk exists too, with potential peak intensities up to 90 mph. SPC highlights a 60% chance of watch issuance within the next couple hours (valid until around 7:45 PM CDT).

Stay alert this evening if you're in northwest or north-central Nebraska. Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot indoors away from windows.