New England Storms Hover Near High-CAPE Supercell Ignition — SevereWX

Evening thunderstorms across portions of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and southwest Maine are showing signs of potential intensification as they near a highly unstable air mass.

The SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1616 highlights clusters in northern NH/southwest ME that have remained weak so far, hampered by wildfire smoke and clouds limiting heating. But just south of the baroclinic zone, MLCAPE soars to 2000-3000 J/kg with strong vertical shear, setting the stage for storms to strengthen into organized clusters or supercells if they tap this energy. All severe hazards loom: most probable peak tornado intensity at 100-125 mph (EF2), hail 1.5-2.5 inches, and wind gusts 55-70 mph.

Adding intrigue, a separate cluster over southern Quebec could drift south, fueled by proximity to the warm sector and an approaching upper trough with 70+ kt mid-level jet. HRRR models suggest possible growth, though forecasters note very low confidence in the evolution. Watch issuance odds sit at 40%, with close monitoring underway.

This conditional setup keeps the environment primed for significant severe weather through late evening (valid until 01Z). Trends could tip the balance toward a watch if storms root deeper.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS alerts, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready if you're in the risk area.