Northern New England Storms Test Inhibition Barrier for Severe Surge — SevereWX

Thunderstorms lingering over northern New Hampshire and southwest Maine, along with fresh development in southern Quebec, are showing signs of life amid a high-risk environment this evening.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1616 highlights how wildfire smoke and clouds have capped heating in parts of New England, keeping storms weak so far. But southeast of the main boundary, MLCAPE soars to 2000-3000 J/kg with strong shear—prime ingredients for supercells if storms tap into it. The NH/ME cluster could organize, while Quebec activity edges toward the border, potentially exploding with help from an incoming upper trough and 70+ kt jet.

All severe hazards loom: 1.5-2.5 inch hail, 55-70 mph winds, and 100-125 mph tornadoes (EF2 intensity). HRRR model nods to intensification, but forecasters stress low confidence and an unclear watch need (40% odds).

This setup echoes recent northern New England action but hinges on overcoming inhibition. Trends remain glued to radar.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS alerts, secure outdoors, and have a severe weather plan ready as evening unfolds.