North Texas Supercells Charge Along Outflow for Large Hail, Strong Gusts — SevereWX

Thunderstorms Poised to Explode in North/Northwest Texas

An outflow boundary stretching from near the Red River northwest into the southern Texas Panhandle is the focal point for increasing storm activity this afternoon. Scattered elevated thunderstorms over southern Oklahoma have already shown signs of strengthening, with radar detecting hail cores nearing 1 inch aloft.

SPC's latest Mesoscale Discussion highlights a weakening cap—residual inhibition that's eroding with ongoing heating and moistening. By late afternoon (around 3-4 PM CDT), expect a growing cumulus field south of the boundary to spark more robust storms. Expect initial supercell structures capable of 1.00-1.75 inch hail (quarter to ping pong ball size) and strong outflow gusts up to 55-70 mph.

Deep-layer shear, though modest, supports veering profiles favorable for supercells early on. Convection could later organize into a forward-moving cluster, maintaining a damaging wind risk into evening.

Watch Probability: 60%—SPC is monitoring closely for a severe thunderstorm watch across portions of north/northwest Texas (LAT...LON polygon provided). Peak threats align with MRMS estimates and mesoanalysis.

This setup differs from yesterday's KS-OK fireworks, focusing on cap-busting potential in a warm advection regime.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check local NWS offices (FWD, OUN, LUB, AMA) for updates.