North Texas Supercells Set to Fire for Large Hail, Damaging Gusts — SevereWX

North Texas Supercells Set to Fire for Large Hail, Damaging Gusts

The Storm Prediction Center is eyeing portions of north and northwest Texas for ramping severe weather this afternoon. An outflow boundary from overnight storms stretches from near the Red River into the southern Texas Panhandle, sparking scattered elevated thunderstorms in southern Oklahoma that are already showing signs of strength.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows weak inhibition lingering, but continued heating and moistening will erode the cap within the next 1-2 hours—likely by 3-4 PM CDT. A growing cumulus field along and south of the boundary, backed by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, sets the stage for increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity.

Deep-layer winds are modest but veering profiles offer enough effective shear for supercell structures initially. Expect isolated risks of large hail (1.00-1.75 inches) and strong outflow gusts (55-70 mph). As evening approaches, storms could cluster and push forward, maintaining damaging wind threats.

With a 60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch, portions of the area—from Wichita Falls toward Lubbock and the Panhandle—may see official vigilance soon.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have a severe weather plan, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter if warnings issue. North Texas residents, radar at the ready.