Northern Plains Supercells Prime for 2.5-Inch Hail, 80 MPH Gusts — SevereWX

A slow-moving cold front across the northern Plains is setting the stage for robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion 1522, highlighting eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and northeast South Dakota as the primary zones of concern.

Strong surface heating in a moist airmass—dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s°F—is fueling deepening cumulus clouds along the front. Mid-level storms moving east from the Dakotas will reinforce this setup, with the best potential near the Canadian border in northwest Minnesota where heating and ascent peak. Expect initial supercells amid 35-40 kt effective shear, capable of 1.50-2.50 inch hail and wind gusts to 65-80 mph. A low-end tornado risk exists, with peak intensities up to 90 mph.

These discrete storms should evolve into a linear cluster or MCS as cold pool mergers and frontal forcing organize the line southeastward. While the environment weakens farther into the Mississippi Valley, storms may track toward higher buoyancy zones.

SPC pegs the odds of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch at 80% within the next few hours. Activity peaks through late afternoon into evening.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Check local NWS updates from FGF, ABR, and BIS offices for the latest.