Northwest Oklahoma Poised for Supercells with 2.5-Inch Hail, Damaging Winds — SevereWX

Northwest Oklahoma Poised for Supercells with 2.5-Inch Hail, Damaging Winds

The Storm Prediction Center has flagged northwest Oklahoma for a 40% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch this evening as thunderstorms bubble up along a remnant outflow boundary from Woodward toward Ponca City.

Cumulus clouds are clumping and agitating in Woodward County, hinting at possible storm initiation. High-res models like the latest HRRR runs show storms firing up, but confidence remains shaky.

If storms do develop, the setup screams supercells. Expect extreme instability with MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, steep lapse rates (8°C/km in the 2-6 km layer), and 40 knots of effective shear. Straight hodographs favor splitting supercells packing 1.50-2.50 inch hail and 65-80 mph wind gusts. DCAPE near 1500 J/kg boosts the downburst potential.

Tornado odds are lower due to weak low-level winds, but supercells near the boundary can't be ignored—up to 90 mph tornadoes are possible.

SPC will watch closely; a watch could drop if initiation looks imminent. Overnight, a southeast-moving MCS from Kansas ramps up the severe risk further.

Peak threats: Hail: 1.50-2.50 inches, Winds: 65-80 mph, Tornado: up to 90 mph.

Keep radar handy and have a severe weather plan ready—know your safe spot and stay alert through the night.