Northwest Texas Supercells Load for 1.75-Inch Hail, 70 MPH Gusts as Cap Erodes — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are ramping up across portions of north and northwest Texas this afternoon, fueled by an outflow boundary stretching from the Red River into the southern Texas Panhandle.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1511 flags a 60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch as scattered elevated storms in southern Oklahoma strengthen and push south. A stubborn cap has kept things in check so far, but ongoing heating and moistening will erode it within the next 1-2 hours, likely by 4-5 PM CDT.

Once unleashed, expect a growing cumulus field to explode into thunderstorms with supercell structures thanks to veering winds providing decent shear. Initial storms could drop 1-1.75-inch hail and crank out 55-70 mph gusts from strong outflows. Later, they may cluster and march eastward, maintaining a damaging wind risk into evening.

MLCAPE sits at 1000-2000 J/kg, supporting robust updrafts. Deep-layer flow is modest, but enough for organized storm modes. The MCD covers key areas from near Wichita Falls northwest to Amarillo, impacting WFOs like FWD, LUB, and AMA.

This setup echoes recent Panhandle action but focuses southward—stay tuned for watch updates.

Preparedness: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready. Know your safe spot indoors away from windows.