Supercells Eye OK-KS Border for Very Large Hail, Possible Tornadoes — SevereWX

Thunderstorms are poised to ignite along the Oklahoma-Kansas border this evening, packing supercells capable of very large hail up to 2.5 inches.

The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussion 1231 highlights a favorable setup in northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and adjacent parts of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. An outflow boundary is advancing northward ahead of a surface low in the northeast Texas Panhandle, with lingering inhibition giving way to heating and isentropic ascent. Patches of glaciating cumulus are already visible southeast of Wichita, signaling storm development ahead.

A steamy air mass south of the boundary boasts MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, fueling surface-based storms. Strong shear of 45-55 knots aloft will organize these into supercells, priming large to very large hail. Low-level winds are weak but veering slightly, hinting at brief tornadoes (most probable 85-110 mph) alongside 55-70 mph gusts.

Watch issuance odds stand at 80%, likely by early evening as storms mature. Timing hinges on development along the OK/KS line—stay tuned to SPC for updates.

Peak Threats:

Northern OK (Tulsa vicinity) and southern KS (Wichita area) residents: Monitor radar closely. Have helmets ready for hail, secure outdoors, and know your safe spot for winds or spin-ups.

Preparedness CTA: Review your severe weather plan, charge devices, and follow local NWS alerts—safety first as storms ramp up.