Oklahoma Lapse Rate Plume Primes Storms for 80 MPH Gust Assault — SevereWX

Oklahoma Lapse Rate Plume Primes Storms for 80 MPH Gust Assault

A potent setup is unfolding across much of northern into central Oklahoma this afternoon. An MCV is tracking through northwest Oklahoma, while a quasi-stationary boundary drapes eastward near the Oklahoma-Kansas line. Ahead of these features, intense heating is building robust cumulus fields, particularly within a low-level lapse rate plume.

Scattered storms should fire up after 4 PM CDT (21Z), thriving in a moist and unstable environment. CAPE nears 2000 J/kg with mid-60s dewpoints from upstream mixing. Though deep-layer shear remains weak, winds veer with height to nudge storms southward in pulse-style motion.

High PWATs and peak diurnal heating favor potent downdrafts, with the most probable peak gusts at 65-80 mph. Stronger cells could briefly drop 1.25-inch hail. SPC pegs watch odds at 60% through 5:30 PM CDT.

This threat spans from near the KS border southwestward into central OK—check the lat/lon polygon for details on SPC's graphic.

Stay prepared: Download a reliable weather app, monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter indoors away from windows if storms approach. Livesafe in Oklahoma's severe season.