Evening Severe Storms Loom Over Northeast SD, Central MN with 2.5-Inch Hail Risk — SevereWX

Evening Severe Storms Loom Over Northeast SD, Central MN with 2.5-Inch Hail Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has flagged a mesoscale discussion for northeast South Dakota and west-central into central Minnesota, where strong to severe thunderstorms could ignite soon. Development looks increasingly likely starting around 6-8 PM CDT near the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota border region, potentially spilling into more areas through late evening.

Surface conditions are primed: upper 80s temperatures mixed with 70s dewpoints yield over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, while ample moisture (PW >1.8 inches) fuels the threat. Shear around 25 knots supports storm organization, with the best potential tied to an approaching front.

Stronger storms could produce isolated to scattered 1.50-2.50 inch hail and 65-80 mph wind gusts. Model guidance hints at initial activity near the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466, with additional storms possible farther southeast. SPC assigns a 60% chance of a new watch if coverage and intensity materialize.

Uncertainty lingers on exact evolution, but mesoscale factors warrant close monitoring into the night.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar and local NWS updates, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready if you're in the risk area.