Evening Supercell Surge Targets 2.5-Inch Hail, Severe Gusts in SD-Nebraska Plains — SevereWX

Storms are firing up along a stationary boundary near Chadron, Nebraska, with additional cumulus towers bubbling in central South Dakota. As surface heating chips away at lingering inhibition, expect broader development by late afternoon into early evening, fueled by a ramping low-level jet.

The setup favors supercell structures thanks to 40-45 kt of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km from recent soundings. These storms could pack large hail topping out at 2.5 inches, along with severe wind gusts up to 70 mph. There's potential for upscale growth later, shifting the balance toward broader damaging wind threats as convection tracks east.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1534 pegs watch odds at 80% through around 6 PM CDT. Peak threats include hail 1.50-2.50 inches, winds 55-70 mph, and isolated tornadoes to 90 mph.

This activity overlaps portions of western/central SD and far northern NE—keep an eye on radar trends for watch issuance soon.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have severe weather apps ready, and know your safe spot indoors away from windows.