Heating Ignites Evening Storms Over SE Colorado, NE New Mexico with 70 MPH Blasts — SevereWX

Intense afternoon heating across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico is sparking thunderstorms that will grow in coverage and push southeast into the Texas Panhandle through the evening.

The SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1578 highlights storms already bubbling up along the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. With southeast surface winds holding dewpoints in the 50s F, combined with modest westerlies aloft and backed low-level flow, effective shear of 30-35 knots is supporting storm organization. Steep low-to-midlevel lapse rates favor primarily damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, though isolated hail to 1.75 inches (golf ball size) is possible.

Warm temperatures at 300 mb are tempering CAPE somewhat, keeping the main threat on those severe downdraft winds rather than large hail cores or rotation. Scattered cells and clusters will trend southeastward, potentially reaching the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles where stronger inflow from southerly 850 mb winds around 35 knots could enhance gust potential.

Peak threats include wind gusts of 55-70 mph and hail of 1.00-1.75 inches. A watch issuance stands at 60% odds.

Stay prepared: Monitor radar closely, secure outdoor items, and have a severe weather plan ready as these storms evolve this evening.