Outflow Boundary Ignites Marginal Supercells Over SE Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas — SevereWX

Severe Storms Brewing in the Ozarks Region

An outflow boundary from earlier convection is setting the stage for thunderstorms across southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri and northern Arkansas this late afternoon and evening. With airmass recovery pushing temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s°F southwest of the boundary, storms should spark around 5 PM CDT near a weak surface low in southeast Kansas.

Enhanced shear from a lingering mesoscale convective vortex (30-35 kt effective shear) favors marginal supercell structures. Primary threats include isolated large hail up to 1.25 inches (quarter-dollar size), damaging wind gusts to 55-70 mph, and low-level rotation that could yield a tornado (most probable 85-110 mph) near the boundary.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1560 flags a 60% chance of a watch through 11 PM CDT. Storms may maintain intensity long enough to impact populated areas around Springfield, Joplin, and points south into northern Arkansas.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have a severe weather plan, secure outdoor items, and seek shelter in interior rooms if warnings are issued. Check radar frequently as this setup could evolve quickly.