Supercells Packed with Large Hail Set to Ignite Over Southern Missouri Into Northern Arkansas — SevereWX

Storms are stirring to life across southern Missouri this morning, with visible satellite imagery revealing deepening cumulus clouds east of Springfield. The Storm Prediction Center's latest Mesoscale Discussion (0462) highlights a growing severe weather risk through early afternoon, as these cells organize into supercells capable of producing large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter—tennis ball territory—and damaging wind gusts of 55-70 mph.

Surface analysis shows lingering convective inhibition (MLCIN) around Springfield, but intensifying heating, mixing, and cooling aloft from an approaching shortwave trough should erode it within a couple of hours. HREF model guidance points to a cluster of thunderstorms firing by early afternoon, initially over southern Missouri before shoving southeast into northern Arkansas. Forecast soundings reveal favorable hodographs for supercellular development, supporting the large hail potential. Over time, expect storms to congeal into a more organized cluster, ramping up the damaging wind threat. Spotty thunderstorms could also pop near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border.

With an 80% probability of watch issuance, coverage will likely span southern Missouri, northern Arkansas, and snippets of western Tennessee and Kentucky. Peak tornado intensity could reach 95 mph (low-end EF-2), but hail and winds dominate the primary concerns.

This setup fits into the broader spring severe pattern, but residents in the region should monitor updates closely as development accelerates.

Stay prepared: Review your severe weather plan, ensure multiple alert sources (like NOAA Weather Radio or apps), and know your safe shelter spot. Have helmets handy for hail protection if outdoors.