Texas Outflow Ignites Supercell Surge for 1.75-Inch Hail, 70 MPH Blasts — SevereWX

Texas Outflow Ignites Supercell Surge for 1.75-Inch Hail, 70 MPH Blasts

A stubborn outflow boundary from overnight storms drapes from near the Red River northwest into the southern Texas Panhandle, priming the pump for today's action. Scattered elevated thunderstorms bubbling up in southern Oklahoma have already flashed some muscle, with MRMS MESH nearing 1-inch hail and radar showing beefier cores aloft.

Weak inhibition lingers per SPC mesoanalysis and recent soundings from Fort Worth and Amarillo, but diurnal heating and added moisture will chew through the cap over the next 1-2 hours—likely by 3-4 PM CDT. A juicy plume of MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is fueling a growing cumulus field south of the boundary, setting the stage for thunderstorm coverage and intensity to ramp up fast.

Deep-layer winds are modest but veer with height, delivering enough effective shear (~25-30 kt) for organized supercell modes initially. Expect isolated storms to pack 1.00-1.75 inch hail and potent 55-70 mph gusts from strong outflows. As evening nears, activity could cluster and propagate east, shifting the main severe risk toward damaging winds.

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion 1511 eyes a 60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch within the next couple hours for portions of north/northwest Texas. Keep radar tabs on this—storms look poised to deliver.

Stay prepared: Identify your safe shelter, enable weather alerts on your phone, and monitor NWS radars or apps like RadarLive for real-time updates.