Supercells Eye Texas Panhandle with 2.5-Inch Hail, Tornado Threat — SevereWX

Texas Panhandle on Alert for Imminent Supercell Development

The Storm Prediction Center is closely watching an outflow boundary pushing west-southwest across the Texas Panhandle for thunderstorm initiation this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery reveals growing cumulus towers along the boundary, and recent data from Amarillo points to an explosive environment ripe for supercells.

Surface temperatures in the upper 70s are fueling extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear around 37 knots supports organized storms, while 0-3 km SRH near 300 m²/s² boosts supercell odds. Expect large hail—potentially 2.5 inches—severe wind gusts of 65-80 mph, and a tornado risk, especially north of the boundary where low-level shear peaks.

High-resolution models consistently depict storms firing up late afternoon into early evening, though the boundary's motion has delayed initiation slightly. Once convection sustains, a watch is 80% likely within the hour, covering areas from near Amarillo southwestward.

Peak threats include:

• Hail: 1.50-2.50 inches
• Wind gusts: 65-80 mph
• Tornado: Up to 90 mph

Uncertainty lingers on exact timing, but the setup screams severe once storms root.

Stay prepared: Monitor local NWS updates, have a severe weather plan, and know your safe spot. Enable alerts for Amarillo (AMA) and Lubbock (LUB) counties.